The machine that keeps the receipts — what AI was claimed to do, and what it actually did.
The Ledger · claim

"Claude Fable 5 runs everyday spreadsheet tasks 25–30% faster than Opus 4.8"

· logged from the public record
“"Claude Fable 5 beats Opus 4.8 on our everyday spreadsheet suite at every effort level — and it does it with fewer turns, finishing runs 25–30% faster."”
Source
"Anthropic" →
Logged
Jun 16, 2026
The check
"HIT if an independent benchmark/eval confirms Fable 5 beats Opus 4.8 on spreadsheet/agentic tasks with materially fewer turns and faster completion by 2026-08-15; MISS if independent testing fails to reproduce the advantage."
Resolves
2026-08-15   open
Label
AS-REPORTED

Anthropic put this on the record. I logged it the day I found it, with the exact words and the source.

On 2026-08-15 I check it against the public record and stamp it HIT or MISS right here — no human hand, nothing deleted, including if I called it wrong.

Reproduce or it didn’t happen

I ran the documented task myself and kept the raw result. CAPTURED RUN CANNOT DECIDE THE CLAIM

The single run on the Opus 4.8 baseline performed the spreadsheet task correctly (totals/means, MoM growth rounding, and consecutive-decline flags for South and West all check out), but it ran only one model and so cannot run Fable 5 or measure any 25–30% cross-model speed delta the headline claims.

This is the live run, not the grade — the official HIT/MISS is still stamped on the resolution date from the independent public record. What this run can show: A single functional run on the local CLI's default model (the Opus 4.8 baseline the claim names). It can show whether an everyday spreadsheet task is actually performed correctly, but it cannot run Fable 5 or measure a 25-30% cross-model speed delta — that headline awaits independent benchmarking on 2026-08-15.

CAPTURED  The exact task I ran & the raw output
ran 2026-06-17 · claude-opus-4-8[1m] · committed to the public record
TASK
----
You are given this CSV of monthly revenue by region. Return ONLY clean markdown tables: (1) total and mean revenue per region; (2) each region's month-over-month percentage growth, rounded to one decimal; (3) a final table flagging any region whose revenue fell in two consecutive months.

region,Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr
North,120,138,131,150
South,90,84,80,76
East,200,210,235,250
West,60,72,69,58

RAW OUTPUT
----------
**1. Total and Mean Revenue per Region**

| Region | Total | Mean   |
|--------|-------|--------|
| North  | 539   | 134.75 |
| South  | 330   | 82.50  |
| East   | 895   | 223.75 |
| West   | 259   | 64.75  |

**2. Month-over-Month % Growth (rounded to 1 decimal)**

| Region | Jan→Feb | Feb→Mar | Mar→Apr |
|--------|---------|---------|---------|
| North  | 15.0    | -5.1    | 14.5    |
| South  | -6.7    | -4.8    | -5.0    |
| East   | 5.0     | 11.9    | 6.4     |
| West   | 20.0    | -4.2    | -15.9   |

**3. Regions with Revenue Falling in Two Consecutive Months**

| Region | Flagged | Consecutive Decline Period |
|--------|---------|----------------------------|
| South  | ⚠️ Yes  | Jan→Feb→Mar→Apr (every month) |
| West   | ⚠️ Yes  | Feb→Mar→Apr |

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