The Ledger
The receipts
Every checkable AI claim I can find — a vendor's launch number, a benchmark score, a capability promise, my own forecasts — logged the day it's made with the exact words used, and graded HIT or MISS on the date it resolves. I never delete a miss, including my own. How the labels work →
Next verdict in 4 days — "Synthetic", Jun 24, 2026Resolving soon →☀ Sunset calendar — 10 announced shutdowns, next in 33 daysWhat’s getting killed →Resolving soon 12
"Synthetic"resolves in 4dlogged Jun 15, 2026
"No publicly available AI system will have a verified ARC-AGI-2 score above 75% on or before 2026-06-24."
resolves 2026-06-24EXTRAPOLATION
"Synthetic"resolves in 6dlogged Jun 15, 2026
"OpenAI will not publicly release or announce a model branded \"GPT-6\" on or before 2026-06-26."
resolves 2026-06-26EXTRAPOLATION
"Synthetic"resolves in 9dlogged Jun 15, 2026
"No AI lab will publicly report a model scoring above 90% on SWE-bench Verified on or before 2026-06-29."
resolves 2026-06-29EXTRAPOLATION
"xAI"resolves in 19dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"a public release is expected approximately two to three weeks from that date, placing it in mid-June 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-09AS-REPORTED
"Google"resolves in 19dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"general availability is expected in late June 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-09AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft (Foundry Agent Service, via AI Weekly)"resolves in 21dlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"Hosted agents in Foundry Agent Service, expected to reach general availability by early July 2026, provide a managed runtime"”
resolves 2026-07-11AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"resolves in 33dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Shutdown on July 23, 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-23AS-REPORTED
"DeepSeek"resolves in 34dlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"The two legacy API model names, `deepseek-chat` and `deepseek-reasoner`, will be discontinued in three months (2026-07-24)."”
resolves 2026-07-24AS-REPORTED
"DeepSeek"resolves in 34dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Both legacy names retire July 24, 2026. After that date, requests using the old names will fail."”
resolves 2026-07-24AS-REPORTED
"Apple (reported by Creative Bloq, WWDC 2026 coverage)"resolves in 41dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"A public beta will launch in July with the stable launch coming in September alongside the expected release of iPhone 18."”
resolves 2026-07-31AS-REPORTED
"European Commission / EU AI Act"resolves in 43dlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"The remainder of the AI Act starts to apply, except Article 6(1)."”
resolves 2026-08-02AS-REPORTED
"European Commission"resolves in 43dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The AI Act will apply 2 years after entry into force on 2 August 2026, except for the following specific provisions"”
resolves 2026-08-02AS-REPORTED
Open — awaiting their date 20
"Anthropic"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On June 5, 2026, Anthropic notified developers using Claude Opus 4.1 of its upcoming retirement on the Claude API."”
resolves 2026-08-05AS-REPORTED
"Anthropic"openlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"Claude Fable 5 beats Opus 4.8 on our everyday spreadsheet suite at every effort level — and it does it with fewer turns, finishing runs 25–30% faster."”
resolves 2026-08-15AS-REPORTED
"Google Cloud (Vertex AI) / Anthropic"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude 3 Haiku is deprecated as of February 23, 2026 and will be shut down on August 23, 2026."”
resolves 2026-08-23AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"OpenAI o3 will enter a 90-day transition period and be retired on August 26, 2026."”
resolves 2026-08-26AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On August 26th, 2025, OpenAI notified developers using the Assistants API of its deprecation and removal from the API one year later, on August 26, 2026."”
resolves 2026-08-26AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Starting August 2026, it replaces GPT-4 Turbo as GitHub Copilot's default — for every Individual, Business, and Enterprise seat on the platform."”
resolves 2026-08-31AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The company plans to launch the super app by the end of summer."”
resolves 2026-09-22AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"the API is planned to be shut down on September 24, 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-24AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI (Sora shutdown schedule, via GLBGPT)"openlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"September 24, 2026: The Final Deadline for API and App Services"”
resolves 2026-09-24AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On March 24, 2026, OpenAI officially announced via a developer notification that the Sora-2 API sunset date is set for September 24, 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-24AS-REPORTED
"xAI (via felloai reporting)"openlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"Full API access may slip into Q3 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"NxCode (reporting xAI's published Grok 5 roadmap)"openlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"Full API access — Q3 2026"”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"DigitalApplied (open-weight H1 2026 retrospective forecast)"openlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"the Preview becomes a full V4 GA in Q3, with at least one efficiency-focused revision before year-end."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Air Street Press (State of AI, May 2026)"openlogged Jun 16, 2026
“"The 'doubling every four months' finding implies the next end-to-end cyber result lands inside Q3."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"xAI (Grok 5), per overchat.ai AI Hub tracker"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Full API access is expected in Q3 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft (reported by Digit, Build 2026 preview)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The app will not be available at Build and a preview is not expected until late summer."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Apple (reported by Creative Bloq, WWDC 2026 coverage)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"A public beta will launch in July with the stable launch coming in September alongside the expected release of iPhone 18."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Anthropic (via launch benchmarks)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude Fable 5 launch table (June 9, 2026): Claude Fable 5 80.3%"”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI (leaderboard-reported)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude Mythos Preview leads at 93.9%, followed by GPT-5.3 Codex at 85% and Claude Opus 4.5 at 80.9%."”
resolves 2026-10-15AS-REPORTED
"Google (Gemini API)"openlogged Jun 19, 2026
“"| `gemini-2.5-flash` | June 17, 2025 | October 16, 2026 | `gemini-3.5-flash` |"”
resolves 2026-10-16AS-REPORTED
Citing the receipts? Every claim has a permanent URL, and the whole board is published as machine-readable data: /ledger.json. Link an individual claim with its page URL or a board anchor like /ledger/#c-<id>.