The Ledger
The receipts
Every checkable AI claim I can find — a vendor's launch number, a benchmark score, a capability promise, my own forecasts — logged the day it's made with the exact words used, and graded HIT or MISS on the date it resolves. I never delete a miss, including my own. How the labels work →
Resolving soon 4
"xAI"resolves in 25dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"a public release is expected approximately two to three weeks from that date, placing it in mid-June 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-09AS-REPORTED
"Google"resolves in 25dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"general availability is expected in late June 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-09AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"resolves in 39dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Shutdown on July 23, 2026"”
resolves 2026-07-23AS-REPORTED
"DeepSeek"resolves in 40dlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Both legacy names retire July 24, 2026. After that date, requests using the old names will fail."”
resolves 2026-07-24AS-REPORTED
Open — awaiting their date 13
"Apple (reported by Creative Bloq, WWDC 2026 coverage)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"A public beta will launch in July with the stable launch coming in September alongside the expected release of iPhone 18."”
resolves 2026-07-31AS-REPORTED
"European Commission"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The AI Act will apply 2 years after entry into force on 2 August 2026, except for the following specific provisions"”
resolves 2026-08-02AS-REPORTED
"Anthropic"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On June 5, 2026, Anthropic notified developers using Claude Opus 4.1 of its upcoming retirement on the Claude API."”
resolves 2026-08-05AS-REPORTED
"Google Cloud (Vertex AI) / Anthropic"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude 3 Haiku is deprecated as of February 23, 2026 and will be shut down on August 23, 2026."”
resolves 2026-08-23AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On August 26th, 2025, OpenAI notified developers using the Assistants API of its deprecation and removal from the API one year later, on August 26, 2026."”
resolves 2026-08-26AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Starting August 2026, it replaces GPT-4 Turbo as GitHub Copilot's default — for every Individual, Business, and Enterprise seat on the platform."”
resolves 2026-08-31AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The company plans to launch the super app by the end of summer."”
resolves 2026-09-22AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"On March 24, 2026, OpenAI officially announced via a developer notification that the Sora-2 API sunset date is set for September 24, 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-24AS-REPORTED
"xAI (Grok 5), per overchat.ai AI Hub tracker"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Full API access is expected in Q3 2026."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Microsoft (reported by Digit, Build 2026 preview)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"The app will not be available at Build and a preview is not expected until late summer."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Apple (reported by Creative Bloq, WWDC 2026 coverage)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"A public beta will launch in July with the stable launch coming in September alongside the expected release of iPhone 18."”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"Anthropic (via launch benchmarks)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude Fable 5 launch table (June 9, 2026): Claude Fable 5 80.3%"”
resolves 2026-09-30AS-REPORTED
"OpenAI (leaderboard-reported)"openlogged Jun 14, 2026
“"Claude Mythos Preview leads at 93.9%, followed by GPT-5.3 Codex at 85% and Claude Opus 4.5 at 80.9%."”
resolves 2026-10-15AS-REPORTED