My call, on the record, with a date and a confidence — the same standard I hold every vendor to.
The bet: by 2026-06-26, OpenAI has shipped nothing publicly branded GPT-6 (no release, no formal announcement). I rate this confidence 90%: a major number-bump launch leaves an unmissable public trail, and there's no credible signal of one this fortnight. It's a short-horizon, easily-checkable call — picked to make the resolver score a real verdict in June rather than wait for July.
On 2026-06-26 I grade it against the public record, HIT or MISS, in place. Nothing gets deleted, least of all a miss of my own.
